It's Not You. It's Really, Really Hard to Get a Major Book or Movie Deal Right Now

But weirdly, for writers, it's still kinda the best of times.

Photos by Jake Hills and Norbert Tóth

Look, it’s never been easy to get a book or movie deal, especially at a major publishing house or movie studio.

Here’s a demoralizing fact: you’re probably more likely to win a million dollars in the California lottery than you are to sell a spec script. In 2021, more than 138 folks made at least a million dollars in that lottery — and in that same year, this guy identifies a grand total of 34 spec script sales.

The real number of script sales is probably higher, and yeah, screenwriting is about more than random chance. But trust me, these 34 specs didn’t all sell for a million dollars. Plus, a large percentage were also written by established writers, not newbies trying to break in.

Everyone agrees the screenwriting numbers have grown even worse since then. Until the writers’ strike is settled, it’s currently impossible to sell a screenplay to a studio. But even before that, screenplays just weren’t selling.

I have five different movie projects in development right now, and earlier this year, almost every producer was telling me some variation of the same thing: “Don’t get your hopes up. It’s brutal out there. Nothing is moving.”

The insane buying spree of the early streaming era was never sustainable, but that bubble has finally burst, and the industry is now in a period of massive contraction. Meanwhile, remember how no one knew if the theatrical movie distribution model would recover, post-Covid?

Well, now we know, and things look to be forever diminished.

It isn’t any better for books in New York publishing.

Overall book sales have been climbing for the last decade (though they were down in 2022 from a Covid-related high in 2021). But overall book sales are often skewed by the success of one or two mega-successes — The Hunger Games books, for example, or Michelle Obama’s first biography. They often tell very little about the health of the greater industry.

But here’s what a book agent told me last week: “Editors are finally reading again after Covid, but almost no one is buying. I see the sales in Publishers Marketplace [an industry website], and the numbers are sixty percent of what they were before Covid, if that. And advances are half what they were five years ago. There are fewer editors to submit to too. Everyone is downsizing and consolidating.”

Photo by Redd F on Unsplash

Does all this depress you?

Well, buckle up, because here’s something even more depressing: when times are tough and acquisitions are few, buyers tend to become more conservative, less willing to take chances. With fewer slots to fill, everyone is looking for the “sure thing” — which, of course, doesn’t really exist in the arts, but if it does, it mostly involves the tried-and-true.

In Hollywood, that’s good news if you’ve written a high concept horror film that can be filmed cheaply, like Smile or Barbarian, or if you own the rights to some “intellectual property” that can be adapted, rebooted, remade, or ironically riffed upon.

In New York, well, romance, crime, and thriller are always strong, and authors from certain marginalized backgrounds are still getting close reads.

You’re also still okay if your name is Michelle Obama, although even her latest book sold much less than her first one.

I make my living as a writer, so you’d think I’d be very depressed by all this, but weirdly, I’m not. In fact, I think we’re smack in the middle of a “best of times, worst of times” situation.

Yes, things are bleak if you’re trying to make money telling stories in the traditional way through a traditional distribution outlet.

But part of the reason why things are so bleak there is because consumers now have so many more entertainment options. YouTube? TikTok? And, well, Substack, which is how you’re reading this essay right now? These last two platforms barely existed five years ago.

And then there are video games, which are a bit too far outside my bailiwick to deal with here.

Photo by Alex Haney on Unsplash

Attention must also be paid to ebooks. Sales of ebooks have finally leveled off, but this was after a period of exponential growth. More importantly, the introduction of ebooks essentially created a new “self-publishing” industry — which now accounts for an astounding 51% of total ebook sales (and a rapidly growing 34% of total revenue).

The point is, there are only so many hours in a day: time consumers spend on this other content and these other mediums means there is less time — and fewer dollars — to spend on traditional media.

I know many traditional writers get upset when traditionally created books, movies, and TV shows are deemed “content” — and I’ll grant that something is lost when almost nothing has the traction or legitimacy of the era before the world became awash in user-generated content on social media.

But part of this is also just plain snobbery and elitism. And whether it is or not, the world has changed, and writers, like everything else, must either adapt or die.

Personally, I see these changes as incredible opportunities for writers — and I truly don’t think I’m rationalizing.

Until very recently, you used social media to create a platform, which is how you interested a traditional distribution entity, which is how you made real bank and got your cultural legitimacy.

But I think even that model is already mostly a thing of the past. Personally, I’ve made more money from self-publishing than I ever made in traditional publishing. And I’m making a more consistent income on Substack — from my other newsletter, about my life as a digital nomad — than I definitely ever made in Hollywood.

As for cultural legitimacy, well, does that even exist anymore?

Oh, and if you think there’s no place for fiction or serious storytelling in this Brave New World of multiple platforms and mediums, you’re wrong. If you can dream it, you can do it — although it remains to be seen if there’s any kind of market for whatever it is you’re dreaming and doing.

Then again, ‘twas ever thus, right?

The previous traditional model from the previous traditional era definitely had its pros. But it had real cons too. Remember gatekeepers? Sure, you could make real money and gain real cred — if you made it past the editors or studio heads, and the bookstore buyers or theater owners, and critics and award committees.

And the exceptions always only proved the rule.

Now you can take your work directly to the people. The barrier to entry used to be very high, but now it’s very low. Which means we’re awash in content, and it’s almost impossible to get attention for your work, which is another kind of barrier to any real success. But still.

The ancient Chinese probably didn’t originate the phrase, “May you live in interesting times.” And whatever the source, it’s unclear if it was originally intended to be a blessing or a curse.

But for writers, interesting times have definitely arrived. How we respond is up to us.

Brent Hartinger is a screenwriter and author. Check out his other newsletter about his travels at BrentAndMichaelAreGoingPlaces.com.